February, the Cruelest Month?: Economic Blues

OK, the inauguration was last month. Job losses increasing. Market and home prices continue to fall/barely hanging on. The Super Bowl, replete with Bruce Springsteen and a fourth quarter wrestling match between the West and the Rust Belt, hampered by by economic blues. Change. Check. Post-party governance. Nope. Hope. Ch....eck, for now. Ya gotta believe.

Printing The NYT Costs Twice As Much As Sending Every Subscriber A Free Kindle
http://www.alleyinsider.com/2009/1/printing-the-nyt-costs-twice-as-much-as-sending-every-subscriber-a-free-kindle

Quo Vadis: Salaries, Jobs, and Equity.
The NY TIMES article on "The Big Fix" was interesting until it ridiculously equated "Big Oil" "COAL" "WALL STREET" and "Teachers Unions" as issues that need to be addressed (i.e., tamed) before the economy can be "fixed". A different article, on another issue entirely,seems to address the absurdity of this position, and the entire issue of wealth, greed, and the workplace. Huge salaries to hire "The Best"?
Howard Jacobson: You can never get enough sex, but you can have too much money
Society will always be unjust. The question is how great we can bear the disparity to be

The weakest argument made for excessive earnings is that only by offering a fortune do you attract the right person. It should always have been obvious that that's a truism which proves its very opposite. If it's only the fortune that makes the job suitable for the man then the man is by definition unsuitable for the job. Even banking – the one place where the rapacity criterion might have applied – has proved that. The greedy, we now know, are not even good at greed. And were it true that we must pay the most to get the best, why do we argue differently when it comes to the jobs we prize above all others? Let teachers or nurses strike for half a day to improve their pittance and they are accused of irresponsibility and greed, of not honouring the sacred codes of selflessness we associate with their professions. Here the very opposite to the avarice principle prevails: we pay the least to get the best.
A sentimental assumption about job satisfaction underlies this double thinking. Teachers and nurses, we say, do what they do because they love to do it; for them the calling is its own remuneration. (An assumption that doesn't look the other way, with our pitying the poor banker for whom the only relief from the grinding unrewardingness of his job is the prospect of a seven-figure bonus.) But however true it is that the best of what we do we do because we choose to, and let money come or let it not, extreme inequalities in pay must create discontent. Society will always be unjust – not only unequal but undiscriminating – in its distribution of rewards. The question is how great we can bear the disparity to be; and when a banker gets more in his Christmas box than the entire annual teaching salary of a failing inner-city comprehensive – though not so failing as the banker's bank – we have passed the point of tolerance. I might have tried to calculate how many undernourished children could be fed with the money the average Premier League footballer earns every time he misses a penalty, but we indulge footballers. Like rock stars and actresses they get us through the grey days of life in an innocent reverie of emulation, which is I suppose preferable to envy.

Article here:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/howard-jacobson/howard-jacobson-you-can-never-get-enough-sex-but-you-can-have-too-much-money-1521706.html

The Next Paradigm Shift?: Toward a New Political Economic Model

The last paradigm shift in our political economy was one away from government and toward market driven.

According to author Daniel Yergin, and other analysts and solons at the Davos-fest, who mapped the shift to market driven, we may be heading to a more European model. Since "welfare" has developed such a negative connotation, perhaps we need to coin a new term to replace "welfare state": one pundit mentions "the social state"; how about "The Humane State" ? Or better yet, "The Sane State"?

Is Europe's welfare system a model for the 21st century?
By Katrin Bennhold

Tuesday, January 27, 2009
DAVOS, Switzerland: Along with skiing and partying into the night, Europe-bashing has long been a favorite sport, whenever the world's business and political elite gather here for their once-a-year winter schmoozefest.

But this year many of the critics have fallen conspicuously silent. As top executives, government leaders and a wide range of experts gathered Tuesday for the weeklong World Economic Forum to talk about the challenges facing the battered global economy, the question many were asking was this: Could Europe's much-reviled social welfare system actually end up being the model for the 21st century world?

In the United States, the global stock market rout has wiped out trillions of dollars in retirement savings and rising unemployment is leaving more people without health insurance. In response, officials of the new administration of President Barack Obama have been busy studying the Swedish bank bailout of the 1990s and the Swiss and Dutch health care systems and have been quietly contemplating whether Europe's high fuel taxes and carbon trading system are the right way to limit the burning of fossil fuels that contributes to global warming.

In China, where the demise of the American consumer has exposed the perils of excessive savings at home, the government has not only recently proffered a big Keynesian-style stimulus program but has also just announced a three-year plan to provide universal health care. Though modest by comparison, China's health care plan goes in the direction of what has long been considered a fundamental right in Europe.
"When the world's biggest economy and the world's biggest emerging economy look for lessons in the same place at the same time, you know something is up," said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who is one of the 2,500 participants in Davos this year. "We are seeing a paradigm shift towards a more European, a more social state."

Such shifts are rare.

The Depression of the 1930s eventually ushered in Keynesian demand-side policies and, after a devastating world war, firmly established the need for some sort of welfare state in every major industrial democracy.

The oil price shocks of the 1970s and a wave of inflation helped turn the governing approach in the other direction, empowering Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher and other advocates of lower taxes, smaller government and deregulation.

A year ago, at the opening of the 2008 World Economic Forum, a front-page article in the International Herald Tribune suggested that global capitalism was again ripe for such a generational transformation. Amid the worst financial crisis since the Depression, that transformation is now in full swing.

With whole swaths of the banking sector being propped up by trillions of dollars in taxpayer funds and hundreds of billions more being dedicated to deficit-financed public spending programs across the world, the most striking feature so far is the comeback of big government.
The the full article from today's International Herald Tribune appears here:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/27/business/27shift-416683.php

Building the Great Society 2

It has seemed clear, to me at least, from early on in the Bush administration, as the country began its general social gravitation toward the New Pharaoh - The Corporation, and away from Government as a necessary social -political institution and function of a democratic society, that things, no matter how badly, how relentlessly market-driven, and capital-motivated they become, will eventually go so far to the right that some kind of correction would be inevitable. Well, that day has come. Even under the Clinton Administration, government was viewed as Too Damn Big. The 44th President of the US seems less concerned about whether government is Big or small, just that it is effective.

As we take a deep breath and we, and the administration, sees where this amazing moment in our nation's history takes us, let's step back a minute and reflect on the Thoughts of that Pre-eminent Philosopher of the 1960s, whose overall success was tainted by the debacle of the Viet Nam War, but whose efforts in pressing Civil Rights legislation and using government as a tool to build a Great Society cannot now be underestimated. Although he is less heralded and less admired than JFK, or Lincoln, his efforts in supporting civil rights legislation, education and social programs in the 60s, have to be viewed as having a direct impact upon January 20, 2009:

Did you ever think that making a speech on economics is a lot like pissing down your leg? It seems hot to you, but it never does to anyone else.
Lyndon B. Johnson

No member of our generation who wasn't a Communist or a dropout in the thirties is worth a damn.
Lyndon B. Johnson

The CIA is made up of boys whose families sent them to Princeton but wouldn't let them into the family brokerage business.
Lyndon B. Johnson

The guns and the bombs, the rockets and the warships, are all symbols of human failure.
Lyndon B. Johnson

We have entered an age in which education is not just a luxury permitting some men an advantage over others. It has become a necessity without which a person is defenseless in this complex, industrialized society. We have truly entered the century of the educated man.
Lyndon B. Johnson

This administration here and now declares unconditional war on poverty.
Lyndon B. Johnson

Only two things are necessary to keep one's wife happy. One is to let her think she is having her own way, and the other is to let her have it.
Lyndon B. Johnson


We have talked long enough in this country about equal rights. It is time now to write the next chapter - and to write it in the books of law.
Lyndon B. Johnson

We have the opportunity to move not only toward the rich society and the powerful society, but upward to the Great Society.
Lyndon B. Johnson

We live in a world that has narrowed into a neighborhood before it has broadened into a brotherhood.
Lyndon B. Johnson

We must open the doors of opportunity. But we must also equip our people to walk through those doors.
Lyndon B. Johnson

There are no problems we cannot solve together, and very few that we can solve by ourselves.
Lyndon B. Johnson

Until justice is blind to color, until education is unaware of race, until opportunity is unconcerned with the color of men's skins, emancipation will be a proclamation but not a fact.
Lyndon B. Johnson

If one morning I walked on top of the water across the Potomac River, the headline that afternoon would read: "President Can't Swim."
Lyndon B. Johnson


Finally, I have a copy of "Quotations from Chairman Lyndon," a takeoff of course on the "Quotations of Chairman Mao." The little red book, which features LBJ in a Mao jacket on the cover, was published as a satire since, at the time, LBJ had a bit of what we know today as "W" in him---that Texas folk wisdom and mistrust for intellectuals. But in some ways, his work was prescient, so let's remember one last quote:

If the American people don't love me, their descendants will.
Lyndon B. Johnson


--Brooklyn Beat

'To Repel Ghosts' ('Fantasmi da scacciare'): Jean-Michel Basquiat in Rome

Jean-Michel Basquiat; Firenze 1985; Photo © Michael Halsband



Self portrait (Plaid), 1983
Acrylic and paper on panel
Thaddaeus Ropac Collection
Salzburg - Paris

'To Repel Ghosts' ('Fantasmi da scacciare'): Jean-Michel Basquiat in Rome
The MemmoFoundation in Palazzo Ruspoli, Via Del Corso. Through February 1, 2009.If there is any city that can make you believe in ghosts, that is, in the continuity of spiritual existence after death, it would have to be Rome. Besides the remarkable antiquity everywhere, of a city with roots back to 753 BCE (although historians believe it may have been closer to 625 BCE), ancient structures and fragments of structures, there are physical relics of Saints and Popes and Clergy everywhere, literally mounted on the walls or under the altars of churches (chiese), dating back to the Renaissance and earlier. There is even a "Museum of the Souls in Purgatory" on the lungo Tevere, containing objects or photos of objects that show "tangible traces" of apparitions made by various souls in Purgatory to those left behind on earth, including hand or fingerprints on book pages, wooden boards or articles of clothing from Belgium, France, Germany and Italy.

Therefore, maybe that is what makes the exhibit, "Fantasmi da scacciare," To Repel Ghosts, of work by Jean Michel Basquiat at the Palazzo Ruspoli, so fascinating and provocative here. This isn't the enormous Brooklyn Museum retrospective of 2005, which presented every aspect of the Brooklyn-born artist's career in deep focus. Here, Basquiat's work is limited to about 40+ wonderfully chosen pieces, including some created in collaboration with Andy Warhol and Francesco Clemente, more than ten works being exhibited for the first time and 5 previously unpublished photographs by Michael Halsband.

Selection of works from the exhibition: http://www.fondazionememmo.it/nuovo_sito/eng/incorso/gallery_incorso/gallery_04.asp
The work, curated by Olivier Berggruen, Associate Curator, Schirn Kunsthalle Frankfurt, is beautifully presented here. The soft grey, not white, gallery walls, cause the stark blackness of the "SAMO" images, as well as the Mediterranean blues and blood reds of other works here, to stand out in beautiful relief.

As the catalog by Olivier Berggruen and Francesco Pellizzi notes: "The artist affirms his presence through the evocation of fragments, as a way of “repelling ghosts”, a favorite phrase of his that appears in at least three paintings. The eerie presence of zombie-like creatures that appear to be coming back from the dead, the remnants of writing, sometimes erased, sometimes ‘etched’ into the canvas with unequalled force: these affirm Basquiat’s peculiar situation in which he tried to bridge the abyss between the evanescence of life and its affirmation through the painter’s gesture."

The exhibit includes "Eroica II" and other richly text-imbued works that seem to channel the artist's affinity for Gnostic wisdom and secret language, transcending graffito, and linking the streets of Brooklyn and the Lower East Side, circa 1980s, until his untimely death in 1988, with those of Rome in the 21st century, at once backward looking and forward gazing. Transgressing boundaries of "high" and "low" art, "life", "death", and most of all, notions of "beauty" and "aesthetics."

The Memmo Foundation at the Palazzo Ruspoli: http://www.fondazionememmo.com/
--Brooklyn Beat

Brooklyn Ever-green

Settling back into the New York groove can be a trying undertaking. Despite the rain and wind, I decided to get out of the office for a few minutes and take a brisk, long walk down toward the water and back. After a couple of weeks in bella Roma it sure wasn't a walk along the Lungo Tevere to Trastevere or across via Tomacelli to Vatican City, but for now it would have to do.

Still, NYC always throws one a surprise. Whether it was the late trash pickup because of the inclement weather or if there is a scheduled date for tree pickup, Joralemon Street was imbued with the heavy scent of pine. From Clinton almost down to Furman, a long train of evergreens, stripped of decorations and tinsel, lined Joralemon, outside of nearly every home. On one, the remnants of a popcorn and cranberry garland. The big evergreen in our back yard in Flatbush is vibrant and pretty but more olfactorily neutral. Here, the discarded trees made the winter air surprisingly fragrant, dotted by the cold rain, for this brisk afternoon walk, more restorative than purposeful. Walking and thinking of how it was in Rome and how it is in NYC. But aided in the effort to Be Here Now by the aromatic remnants of a Christmas (so recently) past.

--Brooklyn Beat

Roman Daze: "Oh, to Be Back in the Land of Coca-Cola"

The Piazza Di Spagna, the Spanish Steps. December 2008 - January 2009. Featuring the "Light of Freedom" (memorializing the victims of kidnapping everywhere). Photo - Brooklyn Beat

Back from the Eternal City. Savoring the memories and experiences of traveling with My Better Half and our four kids (13x2, 17 and 20). Meeting our daughter who is studying in Urbino for the year. We stayed in an apartment near the Spanish Steps, walking all over the city. Seeing the antiquities and the art, old and new. Shopping in the supermercati with the Romans, making and enjoying family meals together, talking the train to Napoli and Pompei down the coast. Jean Michel Basquiat exhibit. Visiting the Jewish Ghetto (geto), seeing the Great Synagogue and the Portico d'Ottavio, and talking with the Italian - Jews there. Attending midnight Mass on Christmas at the Chiese di San Ambrogio e Charles for the experience. New Years eve, crazy fireworks. Watching The Godfather 2 in dubbed Italian. Shopping. Seeing a new world and returning to a familiar one with a different perspective.

On our last day, on the via del Corso, this tune popped into my head and now I see I will never shake it...

When I Paint My Masterpiece

Oh, the streets of Rome are filled with rubble,
Ancient footprints are everywhere.
You can almost think that you're seein' double
On a cold, dark night on the Spanish Stairs.
Got to hurry on back to my hotel room,
Where I've got me a date with Botticelli's niece.
She promised that she'd be right there with me
When I paint my masterpiece.
Oh, the hours I've spent inside the Coliseum,
Dodging lions and wastin' time.
Oh, those mighty kings of the jungle, I could hardly stand to see 'em,
Yes, it sure has been a long, hard climb.
Train wheels runnin' through the back of my memory,
When I ran on the hilltop following a pack of wild geese.
Someday, everything is gonna be smooth like a rhapsody
When I paint my masterpiece.

Sailin' 'round the world in a dirty gondola.
Oh, to be back in the land of Coca-Cola!

I left Rome and landed in Brussels,
On a plane ride so bumpy that I almost cried.
Clergymen in uniform and young girls pullin' muscles,
Everyone was there to greet me when I stepped inside.
Newspapermen eating candy
Had to be held down by big police.
Someday, everything is gonna be diff'rent
When I paint my masterpiece.

-Bob Dylan

Copyright ©1971 Big Sky Music

"Auguri! " and Happy New Year..from Rome

The Piaza di Spagna --The Spanish Steps -- now jammed with holiday revelers. The flower and keychain and handbag salesguys now have tables covered with bottles of beer, wine, champagne, foccaccia, sandwiches, an other goodies for sale. Most drinking here seems to occur with meals, so public drunkeness is rare and frowned upon. Tonight, drinkers are everywhere, as are fireworks. The Spanish Steps, still alight with the Christmassy "Light of Freedom" in honor of the victims of kidnapping worldwide, are filled with revelers wearing blinking light headgear and other paraphernalia..

After visiting the Steps we returned to our apartment to celebrate the New Year together. At midnight, the fireworks started. Explosions, lights, and sparkling all over this wonderful, crazy city. Strangers wishing each other "Auguri" which translates somewhere between "good luck, "good fortune" and "congratulations." Like wishing a good "augur" of future fate and fortune. THis city is at once enormously religious and pagan at the same time. A crowd of uniformed high ranking polizia and carbineri officials hurried down the street accompanying a city official in a suit. But the crowd drinking and shooting fireworks received no comment. New Years in Rome, We are together again as a family, so far from New York, but after a couple of weeks, beginning to feel strangely at home ere.

It is New Years in Rome. The eternal city ticks off another year. Happy New Year ! Auguri !

DEEP IN THE HEART OF......ROMA

After a 7.5 hour flight spent in the grueling, velvet confines of business class due to an unexpected upgrade, we landed at Fiumicino AIrport in the Eternal City. Saturday, our first day in Rome. The first signs that we are in this 2000 year old city, long-time home to Roman Catholicism, are the young Roman women, dressed up like Santa Claus, in short red skirts, on roller skates, handing out marketing brochures for Rome's Christmas festivities. The Santa hat is a popular accoutrement here. Babies and young children are not. Neither are Ipods evident as they are in NYC.

Cypress and Palm trees on the way from the airport remind us that we are on another continent, on the Mediterranean Sea. Although the palm trees are mindful of oceanfront properties in the southern US, the fantastic proximity of so much antiquity, dating back to 735 BCE , quickly reminds us that we are not in Miami Beach. Saturday night, the Piazza di Spagna , jammed with tourists, seeing and being seen...

On the terrace, seeing stars under a new sky. The sky one has dreamed of, pure, like a blue light reflected in a window. We are here with our children, visiting our older daughter who we haven't seen since September. Here we are, all of us together, under the Roman sky....

WINTER SCENE IN BROOKLYN

Francis Guy, Circa 1819-1820, provenence: The Brooklyn Museum



Court Street & Joralemon Street, 1:30 PM, December 16, photo by Brooklyn Beat

Governor Rod "Blog" Blagojevich Turning Elected Office Into His Personal ATM. Any potential fallout for the O Team ?

Well, Governor Rod Blagojevich of Illinois seems like a pretty cool customer, for an allegedly corrupt wackadoo. Ironically, it seems like that same strong sense of mid-western American pragmatism, of stockyards and commerce on the Great Lake, and American common sense, that informs and gave this unique world-view to Lincoln and Obama, also contributes to Governor Blog's downfall here...

Anyway, one potential hitch here: It sounds like some Obama people, although apparently not involved in anyway in the wheeling and dealing, made comments that made it sound like someone on Team Obama had discussed the possible replacements with Governor "Blog"... So, it could be a little messy. The problem, as I see it, is, if someone from O's team heard this attempt at "fundraising" and went back to Barry O and said "this guy is a nut" but they didn't report the bribe-asking to the Feds, that is, they decided to keep out of it cause they were busy with the campaign or whatever, it could cause headaches. I wonder if the Feds advised Barry O of this investigation ? You would think they would since he is the President-elect. But since the US Attorney Fitzgerald probably wanted to stay apolitical and see if there were any entanglements -- well, you've got to wonder.. What did George Bush know about the investigation and when did he know it? Did he share this info with the President-elect while he was showing him around the new digs ?

Hopefully, when the Prsesident-elect chats with Governor "Blag" he will get the Rod to agree to resign. Unless he has a cheshire cat smile because he holds a hidden ace...let's see what the coming news cycles bring.

Blue Monday - Krugman: 'Depression Economics"

Growing unemployment mixed with media focus on holiday spending. We seem to be floating on a plane of uncertainty, if not unreality. This recession has either hit you really hard already or you have a sense of concern or uncertainty that it is looming out there. If you haven't been immediately hit, that is, you still have a job and you didn't have much money to invest in the first place, so you haven't really lost any, you are aware of how bad things are in a more abstract sense. Statistically, we know things are bad and getting worse for a lot of people. Where is it going. Will the incoming administration's steps do more than give hope -- will it have impact? No one can be certain, but clearly, the Government needs to do something. We are heading in the holiday season. Down deep, people still have hope that, as the year ends and the calendar changes, the new administration enters, the world will change. At the moment, and in the eyes of economists like Nobel winner Paul Krugman, we may be heading for a long climb back up. As the economy started to turn early this year, greeting card designers and trend spotters were already projecting a holiday focus on family, home, counting one's blessings. With the holidays already a lot less merry and bright than past years, we are surely in for some post-holiday gloom in January. Let's hope the public sector financial engineers and political economists can, if not make some magic, begin to provide some leadership and sustenance to those most immediately in need and to our nation as a whole.

from the Krugman interview:

Salon: How bad do you think this is going to get?

Awful. Without a major stimulus package -- sorry, I guess the politically correct term is now "economic recovery plan" -- I'd say that we were definitely headed for double-digit unemployment. Right now the economy is clearly falling as fast as, or faster than, it was in 1981-82, which was a terrifying slump. If Obama doesn't come up with a massive plan, and possibly even if he does, this is going to be a slump that pushes 10 million-plus Americans below the poverty line, and more.

Full interview at Salon here:
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/feature/2008/12/08/paul_krugman/print.html

Coda: Skywatching: Jupiter, Venus and the Crescent Moon

I stepped out onto Court Street and was greeted by an achingly brilliant tableau: the Moon, Jupiter and Venus, like platinum etched by diamonds, together in the crisp, clear evening sky.

I stood on the corner of Schermerhorn and Court. By the time I would get home to Flatbush, the Moon and its companions would have somehow have fallen out of the sky, but here on Court Street, it was as though the firmament had been peeled back, revealing the secret clockwork that reflected a googleplex of string and quantam mechanics within, or else, as if a Countermoon had suddenly appeared in the black, western sky to keep its partner company in its solitary revolutions. I imagined everyone would be looking at the sky. But, no, I was alone in my awe.

No one on Court Street seemed to be looking up. Everyone went about their business. I had the urge to bring it to the attention of passersby. Instead, I called home, excitedly told my wife and one of my kids, but when they went out to look, the trees, the angle of view, the tall Victorian rooftops, something, blocked this magnificent occlusion from view.

I was alone in my wonder.

Skywatching: Jupiter, Venus and the Crescent Moon

Not sure what the sky will offer in terms of clarity, but with any luck we will have a great view of this occasuional occultation which will not return for decades. Venus, Jupiter and the Crescent Moon will share the sky over Broklyn (and thereabouts) tonite.

Details here:

http://h30405.www3.hp.com/print/pdf/A41JWYBYYFAP/news_large?

Happy Thanksgiving 2008

This wonderful holiday is nearly upon us. Last year, we faced uncertainty, we were anxious over the possible outcome of the election, even though "things weren't so bad" (yet). This year, the world has taken a grim, more challenged turn. But there is now a little hope with a new president-elect who seems to be assembling a government that really intends to do stuff, and do it to a constructive end. I guess that is reason for thanks.

Happy Thanksgiving. Count your blessings. I am.

MORE (AHEM) GOOD NEWS: MATT DRUDGE: RUSSIAN ANALYST PREDICTS DECLINE AND BREAKUP OF USA

The Drudge Report cites a leading Russian political analyst who continues to predict that the economic turmoil in the United States has confirmed his long-held view that the country is heading for collapse, and will divide into separate parts.

Drudge Report: Professor Igor Panarin said in an interview with the respected daily IZVESTIA published on Monday: "The dollar is not secured by anything. The country's foreign debt has grown like an avalanche, even though in the early 1980s there was no debt. By 1998, when I first made my prediction, it had exceeded $2 trillion. Now it is more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid that can only collapse."

The paper said Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. economy, initially made at an international conference in Australia 10 years ago at a time when the economy appeared strong, have been given more credence by this year's events.

When asked when the U.S. economy would collapse, Panarin said: "It is already collapsing. Due to the financial crisis, three of the largest and oldest five banks on Wall Street have already ceased to exist, and two are barely surviving. Their losses are the biggest in history. Now what we will see is a change in the regulatory system on a global financial scale: America will no longer be the world's financial regulator."

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

Asked why he expected the U.S. to break up into separate parts, he said: "A whole range of reasons. Firstly, the financial problems in the U.S. will get worse. Millions of citizens there have lost their savings. Prices and unemployment are on the rise. General Motors and Ford are on the verge of collapse, and this means that whole cities will be left without work. Governors are already insistently demanding money from the federal center. Dissatisfaction is growing, and at the moment it is only being held back by the elections and the hope that Obama can work miracles. But by spring, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all." Panarin, 60, is a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and has authored several books on information warfare.

Track this story at:
http://drudgereport.com/