Battle Tested versus Medium Cool

This amazing presidential campaign has shifted a little bit again. Although it appears that the breakneck momentum that Senator Obama displayed in February has been tempered a bit, the pundits are still pondering the math, and now no one is prepared to claim that they can see through their crystal balls to confidently predict the outcome of the Democratic nomination. Maybe Senator Obama with the combined hopes of his supporters will pull it all together before the Primary. Maybe not. But this is politics and stranger things have happened.

A few short months ago, who thought that Senator McCain would be the Last Man Standing in that crowded field of Republican White Guys.

It seems safe to assume that should Senator Obama receive the Democratic nomination, he and his so far invisible surrogates need to be prepared to fight tirelessly, endlessly, and fiercely in the regular campaign. Frankly, just like Hillary Rodham Clinton, has been willing to fight. Politics is a struggle. Senator Obama to the general public has not outlined a broad platform. He hasn't presented himeslf as a Man With A Plan. Rather, he is portrayed as a gentle visionary, zen cool, suggesting that we should all just love one another, work together for Change, hope and A Better America, and end the politics of personal destruction. This is not said to be facetious. He presents a very appealing image. However, and perhaps it is generational, but I can't yet see a shift away from traditional political campaigning, including hurling the negatives, or, its logical conclusion, the politics of personal destruction.

But should Senator Obama be the candidate and adopt this posture, there is no certainty that the Republicans will roll over and agree to play by the same game rules. (Think Ann Coulter.) When McCain passed the required delegate count, and claimed the G.O.P. mantle, his audience was ecstatic and you could sense that they were feeling empowered and now have the Fire in the Belly required to wage political war which is the American Way.

While Ms Rodham Clinton has seemed to assemble some concrete plans, especially in the health care realm, she too seems careful in not presenting too much information too soon. But what she has presented is her willingness and ability to be a strong candidate and a fighter. In traditional Democratic politics, that includes the willingness to fight the GOP to the end to secure victory.

If Senator Obama wins, perhaps his hallmark will be that coolness, that desire to end political rancor. The question is whether independents will respond to him rather than Senator McCain in sufficient numbers to put him over the top.

In order to ensure victory, we can't assume that the election will reflect anything other than traditional American politics.

Senator McCain projects a certain coolness as well, but it is the coolness of an elder statesman, who has seen, and suffered in, actual battle, and is now the standard bearer for his political party in a changing political climate. But I think we can safely assume that his surrogates will be brutal, both in direct challenge and in sub rosa investigations, leaks, etc., in an effort to breakthrough Senator Obama's cool image.

The major risk is that in electing Senator Obama the Democrats will be suggesting that yes, it will be a War of Ideas. I am sure that Senator Rodham Clinton and former President Bill Clinton and all of their supporters would be out there fighting the GOP should Senator Obama be the candidate. At that point, however, will Senator Obama ask the only Democrats who have been successful in winning an election since Jimmy Carter to pull their punches ? Or will he take the Gandhian approach and say "I would rather lose this election and sacrifice my political party than defeat the Republicans by any means necessary? If through some unforeseen political manuevering, Senator Rodham Clinton gets the nomintion, will he and his supporters in fact not support her in hopes of waiting out the next election ?

Lots of interesting questions. The American political system is based on conflict, intense partisanship, personality, always has. It is no coincidence that there are so many "war" metaphors in the political argot. It seems that both parties would be required to buy into the change of the rules of the game. This has not yet happened.

The next months and the upcoming election promises to be as perplexing, difficult to foresee, and emotionally wrenching as ever.